Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-20 58583.712057 62031.366023 65484.643795 69200.344470 73082.621161 77016.481239 81301.187124
2024-10-27 52700.492529 57937.288578 63336.584640 69310.664615 75726.695790 82401.535534 89861.727499
2024-11-03 49284.217078 55791.540502 62652.797866 70408.330478 78912.559763 87935.562405 98214.146509
2024-11-10 46516.908813 53972.272897 61981.877753 71197.022695 81475.582993 92556.902589 105375.498425
2024-11-17 44020.270056 52202.731706 61140.011230 71582.762626 83404.159924 96325.360609 111469.614272
2024-11-24 41669.412235 50413.597868 60109.596065 71598.737049 84778.804581 99363.172601 116656.865472
2024-12-01 39811.679201 49058.084460 59453.242628 71928.433388 86412.262826 102616.673787 122031.632796
2024-12-08 38004.228645 47652.134039 58640.678626 71986.165600 87654.541528 105363.984309 126786.057579
2024-12-15 36933.459274 47045.390896 58698.613176 73003.761998 89967.366690 109315.444005 132918.563244
2024-12-22 35324.205099 45714.633951 57830.718878 72863.735417 90867.858592 111587.342855 137074.533818
2024-12-29 34534.355642 45330.952657 58053.655571 73989.597042 93242.670394 115574.472204 143245.699495
2025-01-05 33598.999066 44721.671571 57964.134540 74704.890951 95102.480972 118942.253759 148689.638792
2025-01-12 32367.152286 43712.945543 57366.441182 74792.585799 96211.662538 121441.354809 153149.497855
2025-01-19 31065.571534 42569.604948 56562.088585 74591.049309 96943.162145 123474.661268 157053.854982
2025-01-26 30476.789012 42303.576794 56824.743220 75691.366335 99259.209788 127421.338848 163282.260230
2025-02-02 29798.985943 41893.013735 56881.030167 76514.300517 101221.759091 130938.819937 169004.813624
2025-02-09 28973.350382 41258.022791 56625.107606 76920.374474 102649.584543 133796.469575 173928.740676
2025-02-16 28021.890517 40423.645040 56083.844487 76936.799562 103568.199805 136015.714680 178068.097450
2025-02-23 27267.183162 39822.722871 55819.229261 77285.886775 104891.451866 138729.786981 182824.212577
2025-03-02 26430.451756 39083.245908 55348.932698 77347.010338 105831.948967 140958.660968 186979.821872
2025-03-09 26057.045324 38955.323271 55667.896051 78424.627817 108070.036382 144819.471065 193192.829823
2025-03-16 25206.715976 38148.593552 55065.928469 78276.350982 108715.341491 146667.132652 196881.818813
2025-03-23 24926.419679 38116.249022 55485.888927 79468.449724 111096.012998 150719.997422 203372.720501